@vv Yes it seems to work correctly with your qualification algorithm. 

An interesting stat to include in the first round results so far list would be how many times who is knocked out in the first round. 

@vv Very nice start!  A couple of fixes we'll have to take care of.  I had 2 Croatias and 2 Italy's in the knockout round.  Another time 2 Swedens and 3 Croatia's.  Then we can look at the qualification a little more closely

Standings for 3rd place

Additionally, below the first table is what I produced above and the second table determines third place matches.

Ideally it should.  The score also plays a part in the rating as well, meaning a higher goal differential will result in more elo points.  We also have to predict the scores in able to rank the 3rd place teams in case of ties to get through and who they play.  I think this is part of the difficulty of the group stage.

Yes the first 2 get through the group stage (each team plays the other teams in their group once - 3 games).  The placing for 1st round knockout goes like this

Group A runner up vs. Group C runner up

Group D winner vs. Group B/E/F 3rd place

Group B winner vs. Group A/C/D 3rd place

Group F winner vs. Group E runner up

Group C winner vs. Group A/B/F 3rd place

Group E winner vs. Group D runner up

Group A winner vs. Group C/D/E 3rd place

Group B runner up vs. Group F runner up

Yes.  So the expected outcome of team x is the formula you show. 

And the new rating adjustment is calculated as

Elo_new=Elo_old + K * (actual outcome - expected outcome)  where expected outcome is the calculation you show, (actual outcome - win =1 draw =0.5 and loss = 0) and K is a weight constant factor 60 for world cup finals, 50 for continental championships and major intercontinental tournaments, 40 for World cup and continental qualifiers, 30 for all other tournaments and 20 for friendly matches. 

In our case I think it would be 50.

It's been a while since I looked at that and I created an excel sheet for it but can't locate it.  Wikipedia is a good place to see how it's calculated https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elo_rating_system

Basically if a weaker team beats a stronger team, points gained by the weaker team will be larger than if the weaker team lost to the stronger team. 

Everything is updated, I've updated the file above and everything works with 24 teams in the tournament at the 16 knockout stage round (the 16 teams I chose were the most probable based on ELO ratings only).  Now to work the group stages into the simulation which should take far too long for me to complete before the Eurocup group stage is over.

I invite anyone to figure the group stage out.

Got rid of the error by fixing counts:=[0$24] so the simulations will work proplerly if you change that however the "Results so far" list aren't updating correctly

Anyone care to help on this?

I keep getting evaluating Again() produces the error: invalid subscript selector.

Probably has something to do with the way I included all 24 teams in the table when the code was only designed for 16.  I can't get Spain or Turkey to win.

For starters I've modified the original FIFA world cup simulation to the Eurocup but I've taken the teams with the highest ELO ratings as being the most probable for the round of 16.  I haven't started the group stage yet.

It is buggy, when I run it the first time and run it again an error shows up but if you run it again it should work but occassionaly you'll get the error.

Eurosimulation2.mw

rankings := table(["ALB" = 1584, "AUS" = 1752, "BEL" = 1898, "CRO" = 1795, "CZE" = 1728, "ENG" = 1947, "FRA" = 1952, "GER" = 2011, "HUN" = 1668, "ICE" = 1640, "ITA" = 1853, "NIR" = 1595, "POL" = 1743, "POR" = 1883, "REP" = 1735, "ROM" = 1729, "RUS" = 1736, "SLO" = 1742, "SPA" = 1973, "SWE" = 1738, "SWI" = 1745, "TUR" = 1802, "UKR" = 1812, "WAL" = 1629])

Here's the graphics table I've compiled for the flags of the 24 teams to incorporate in the fifa simulation created 2 years ago by Robert Israel.

eurocup-flags.mw

Here's the ELO ratings of the teams just before any games were played.

Group A
1952 France
1745 Switzerland
1729 Romania
1584 Albania

Group B
1947 England
1742 Slovakia
1736 Russia
1629 Wales

Group C
2011 Germany
1812 Ukraine
1743 Poland
1595 Northern Ireland

Group D
1973 Spain
1802 Turkey
1795 Croatia
1728 Czech Republic

Group E
1898 Belgium
1853 Italy
1738 Sweden
1735 Republic of Ireland

Group F
1883 Portugal
1752 Austria
1668 Hungary
1640 Iceland

France's win over Romania in yesterdays opening match moved France up to 1959 and Romania down to 1722.