@mmcdara Thanks, I was wondering when someone at Maple was going to do something. It was in my bag of things to do in Maple. And funny you should mention worldometers.info, I was following information there for a while - people at work asked me where I got my info from and just last week I let the cat out of the bag.

Also, if people are interested, you can find situation reports here https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports/

The only thing I've done in Maple is just a quick doubling calculation. That is if the Covid-19, or the official name of the virus known as SARS Cov-2, growth is exponential and continues to be exponential then we can expect the whole world to have been infected in roughly over a year.

So the doubling rate for the world excluding China turned out to be 4 (that is every 4 days the number of cases would double) including China that number becomes 21 and only because of the draconian measures China put in place, which only until now countries are starting to believe is the only way to contain/slow the virus.

Anyways, the math...

eq := Nt = N0*2^(t/Td)

N0 := 21000: #this was when the world only had 21,000 cases outside of China - from Feb 23 when I carried this out

Td := 21: #we'll use the conservative number of 21 which includes China

Nt := 7700000000: #rough population of the world

eq

evalf(solve(eq,t))

So, from Feb 23, if the virus doubing of 21 is used and it's growth is exponential we can expect the population of the world to all have been infected in 388 days - however that's using those draconian measures that the Chinese have done.

Now of course if we use the doubling value of 4. The world population gets infected much sooner again remembering if the growth rate stays exponential.

Td:=4:#doubling rate of 4

evalf(solve(eq,t))

So using 4days as the doubling rate - which is worst case scenario, in a little over 2 months the whole world will have had the virus.

Using todays numbers N0:=155792 #current value shown on worldometers.info

Td:=4:

evalf(solve(eq,t))

In 62 days from now (worst case scenario) the whole world is infected. Using the more conservative measure of 21 (it will likely be between 4 and 21) then ...

Using Td:=21:

evalf(solve(eq,t))

with(Finance):

AdvanceDate("Mar 14, 2020", 327)

AdvanceDate("Mar 14, 2020",62)

Also looking at the graph (sorry I haven't time to clean it up and post) in 3 weeks North America will be in a full outbreak situation.